Indonesia, the world's biggest supplier of palm oil, said on Thursday it will lift a ban on exports from Monday, likely helping India and other importers. India annually imports around 13-13.5 million tonne of edible oils, of which around 8-8.5 million tonnes (around 63 per cent) is palm oil. Of this, 8-8.5 million tonnes of palm oil, 45-50 per cent comes from Indonesia and the rest from neighboring Malaysia.
With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) measures.
'Our competitiveness with China is very important.' 'If the exchange rate depreciates, it is good for us because it helps in our competitiveness.'
Santosh Patkar of Devgadh Taluka Sindhudurg district of Maharashtra is a worried man these days. Devgadh, which is known as the home to world famous Alphonso variety of mangoes, has seen an unusual drop in yields which is affecting farmers' income. Being one of the primary agricultural produce from the area, Santosh is not untouched by this somewhat rare phenomenon. He said in his own mango garden, yields have come down by a third from most trees.
Earlier this month, the Central government said in a reply in Parliament it had taken measures to double farmers' income by the end of FY23 and the progress made so far indicated it was "on the right track". However, a close look at the data and at the assumptions made shows that as of now, it appears the country is unlikely to achieve the goal in real terms.
While the likelihood of these states going the Lanka or Greece way may be an alarming assessment, the financial situation of some states such as Punjab and West Bengal is indeed quite weak.
The surge in wheat export from India owing to the Ukraine crisis has once again demonstrated how farmers in states that have flexible marketing frameworks and low taxes benefit more from an emerging situation. The bulk of the wheat exported from India, trade and industry sources say, is being sourced at rates significantly higher than the state-mandated price of Rs 2,015 per quintal in Madhya Pradesh (MP), Uttar Pradesh (UP), and Gujarat - states which have low mandi taxes compared to Punjab and Haryana. This is not only benefiting farmers there but could also lead to significant savings for the states in procurement costs in the months to come.
The negative balance is largely on account of pending material cost for the work done under the programme during the year and even earlier.
Their implementation is expected to create investment owing to improving ease of doing business as well as initiating pro-worker measures.
If other states follow suit, it is going to become difficult for the GST Council to decide on the next stage of reforms.
India's potato and tomato production could be marginally less in 2021-22 as compared to the previous year while onion output could be almost 17 per cent more than last year. This was stated in the first advance estimate of horticulture production released on Monday. The government also said total horticulture production is estimated to be at 333.3 million tonnes, a slight decrease of about 1.35 million tonnes (mt)?(or 0.4 per cent) over 2020-21.
However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
A decision to tap the 30 countries for exporting wheat was taken at a meeting of the commerce ministry on Thursday.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis, along with general bullishness in agricultural commodities, has ensured that after a fairly long time, most of the 24 commodities for which the Centre declares the minimum support price (MSP) are trading above it. The exceptions here are chana or gram and a few varieties of pulses. This might gladden the farmers, especially those who are still holding on to their stocks from the previous kharif harvest or are harvesting the latest rabi crop. But this could stoke retail and wholesale inflation.
India's opening stocks of wheat in the central pool are expected to be 19.5-20 million tonnes as on April 1, 2022, the lowest in the last three years, but much higher than the normative level required for maintaining a buffer and strategic reserve, trade and market sources said. In accordance with the buffer and strategic reserve norms, India should have a wheat stock of 7.5 million tonnes in the central pool as on April 1 each year and this year's stocks, though the lowest in the last three years, will still be over 160 per cent more than what is required. On the export front, both government and trade sources are unanimous that this year (FY22) they will be 7-7.25 million tonnes, a record, while in the next financial year, they might touch even 10 million tonnes if the current momentum is maintained.
India's wheat exports could touch a new record of 10 million tonnes in 2022-23, up from a record seven million tonnes in the current financial year, if global market conditions remain choppy and no curbs are imposed on outbound shipments. That is the bullish estimate by officials from global trading firms and market watchers who say the Russia-Ukraine crisis has not only attracted global buyers to India but also pushed the price of Indian wheat from around $320 per tonne (FOB) to over $360 per tonne in less than 10 days. Food secretary Sudhanshu Pandey told reporters that wheat exports till February-end have already reached 6.6 million tonnes and by the end of March, outbound shipments will reach seven million tonnes.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
India is looking to tap its diplomatic missions abroad to enable grain exporters in the country to ship out wheat and corn as supplies from Russia and Ukraine are expected to remain disrupted for some time to come. Between the two items, pushing for wheat is easier because of a huge domestic surplus. "We are hand holding our exporters and support from various Indian missions abroad is also being channelised accordingly," a senior government official said. Global wheat prices have jumped since the Ukraine crisis started, with wheat futures in the US reaching their highest levels since 2008.
In the three months leading up to the Assembly elections, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's government distributed over 1.4 million tonnes (MT) of wheat, 0.95 MT of rice, 0.10 MT of chana (gram), 101.9 million litres of soybean oil and 100,000 tonnes of salt as free ration. This was part of the Covid relief package, officials said.
'We can go somewhere between 35 per cent and 40 per cent.'
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